TRACKING AND DEMYSTIFYING CHINA’S GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT FINANCE
Background
China’s overseas aid and lending to developing countries have encountered intense scrutiny throughout the 21st century, particularly since the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was launched in 2013. Much of this scrutiny has been based on weak empirical evidence given a lack of detailed, systematic, and available data on Chinese overseas development finance.
To help fill this knowledge gap, Prof. Austin Strange and his collaborators initiated a research project to provide rigorous and transparent data on Chinese global development finance.
The research project has been underway since 2012 and is still ongoing.
Aerial photo of Egypt’s new Administrative Capital, for which China provided funding and engineering expertise.
Key research contributions:
- Developed the Tracking Underreported Financial Flows (TUFF) methodology, now an authoritative approach for tracking Chinese-financed development activities in developing countries, using official and unofficial open sources.
- Created several major datasets hosted at AidData, including AidData’s China’s Global Loans and Grants Dataset 1.0, covering 23,000+ projects (totalling US$1.2 trillion) across more than 140 countries in Africa, Asia, Eastern Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, and Oceania.
- Debunked myths about the nature and impacts of China’s overseas development finance. The research shows that Chinese development finance delivers substantial socioeconomic benefits and reduces spatial inequality, but in some cases also increases debt, social, environmental, and other risks.
Real-world Impact (1 October 2019 to 30 September 2025)
- Enabling data-driven policymaking by major development organizations
Many influential governments and organizations engaged in international development activities regularly use the research in crafting policies and analysis. The research and data equip organizations such as the World Bank, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, and United Nations Development Programme with systematic, high-quality, and accessible evidence. The research also aids evidence-based policymaking by major donor government agencies.
- Empowering local communities across the Global South
The research has also empowered local communities in the Global South to enhance oversight and increase government responsiveness—illustrated by high-profile public debates and official responses in countries such as Indonesia, Kenya, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Uganda. The project has also become a seminal, widely used resource that enables foundations, researchers, NGOs, and think tanks worldwide to use its data for operations and data-driven advocacy on various global development policies. Over the past decade, the research has also produced diffuse, field-level effects by reshaping the global information environment on Chinese development finance.
Visit Home | RAE 2020 Impact Case Studies for the full case study.
Selected media coverage:
Selected quotes:
The research is “pathbreaking”, and it can “help developing countries that are dealing with China, international donors and lenders, and even further an improvement in China’s policy.”
Robert Zoellick, Former World Bank President and US Deputy Secretary of State
The research provides “authoritative, objective and quantitative assessments” and is “a must read” for those working on “China’s new role in the global development community and the future development in the recipient countries.”
Justin Yifu Lin, former World Bank Chief Economist
The research “fills the gap between what is announced, what is promised and what gets delivered…it is very well recognized by both researchers and practitioners as being a reliable source of information.”
Robert Gates, former US Secretary of Defense
